Laba dan Arus Kas dalam Memprediksi Laba dan Arus Kas Masa Mendatang dan Pola Harga Saham

Junaidi Junaidi




Abstract


This study aims to test empirically the ability of earnings and cash flows in predicting future earnings and cash flows and stock prices fluctuation pattern. The samples of the research are drawn by using purposive sampling from manufacturing companies listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange. The results of data analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model show that four of five hypothesis are supported. It means that earnings are able to predict future earning and stock price fluctuation pattern, current stock prices can predict future earning price and the series of cash flows can predict future cash flows. However, the fifth hypothesis stated that cash flows can predict stock prices pattern cannot be proved.


Keywords


Earnings, cash flows, stock prices, ARIMA model, prediction.

References


Andayani, W., Junaidi, and Nurdiono. (2011), Annual earnings analysis with ARIMA for future earnings prediction, Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 7(6), 645-651.

Ball, R. and Brown, P. (1968), An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers, Journal of Accounting Research, 159-178.

------ and R. Watts (1972), Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income, Journal of Finance, 663-682.

Baridwan, Z. (2004), Intermediate Accounting, Edisi 8, BPFE, Yogyakarta.

------- (1997), Analisis Tambahan Informasi Laporan Arus Kas, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 12, 113.

Victor, B, L. and Stober, T. L. (1989), The Nature and Amount of Information in Cash Flows and Accrual, The Accounting Review, 624-652.

Bowen, R. M., Burgstahler, D., and Daley, L.A. (1986), The Evidence on The Relationship Between Earnings and Various Measures of Cash Flow from Operation, The Accounting Review (LXI), 4, 713.

Beaver, W. H. (1970), The Time Series Behavior of Earnings, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research, page 62-69.

Brown, L. D. (1993), Earnings Forecast Research: Its Implications for Capital Market Research, International and Business Research, 14, Spring, 113-124.

Fairfield, P. M., Sweeney, R. J., and Yohn, T. L. (1996), Accounting Classification and The Predictive Content of Earnings, The Accounting Review, 71(3), 337-355.

Febriyanti, G. A. (2004), Perbandingan Keakuratan Model Laba Permanen, Transitori dan Laba Agregat dalam Memprediksi Laba Masa Depan, Proceeding, SNA VII, Bali.

Finger, C. A. (1994), The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Cash Flow, Journal of Accounting Research, 32(32), Autumn, 210-223.

Foster, George (1986), Financial Statement Analysis, Second Edition, Prentice-Hall International.

----------- (1977a), Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-series Properties and Predictive-Ability Result, Accounting Review, page 1-21.

Hendriksen, E. S. and van Breda (1991), Accounting Theory, Fifth Edition, Irwin United State of America.

Hermawan, A. dan Hadyansah, N. (2002), Analisa Pengaruh Format Metode Langsung Dalam Laporan Arus Kas Terhadap Return Saham, Proceeding, Simposium Nasional Akuntansi, September, 102-110.

Ismail, B. E. and Kim, M. A (1989). On The Association of Cash Flows Variables with Market Risk: Further Evidence, The Accounting Review, January, 125-136.

Ikatan Akuntan Indonesia (2009), Standar Akuntansi Keuangan, Jakarta, Devisi Penerbitan IAI.

Isgiyarta, J. (1997), Klasifikasi Akuntansi dan Kemampuan Prediksi Laba, Tesis S2, Tidak Dipublikasikan, Universitas Gadjah Mada.

Junaidi (2011), Earnings Performance in Predicting Future Earnings And Stock Price Pattern. Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy (Ventura), 14(2), 107-112.

Kieso, D. E., Weygandt, J. J., and Warfield, T. D. (2011), Intermediate Accounting, volume 1, John Willey & Son, USA.

Kholidiah (2002), Perbandingan Keakuratan Metode Naïve, Regresi Sederhana & Box-Jenkins, Tesis S2, Tidak Dipublikasikan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.

Kusuma, Poppy, D. I. (2003), Nilai Tambah Kandungan Informasi Laba dan Arus Kas Operasi, Proceeding, Simposium Nasional Akuntansi (SNA) VI, Surabaya, 304-313.

Kuncoro, Mudrajad (2001), Metode Kuantitatif: Teori dan Aplikasi untuk Bisnis dan Ekonomi, Edisi pertama, UPP AMP YKPN, Yogyakarta.

Lipe R. C., (1986), The Information Contained in The Components of Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, 24, Supplement, 37-64.

Parawiyati, dan Baridwan, Z. (1998), Kemampuan Laba dan Arus Kas dalam Memprediksi Laba dan Arus Kas Perusahaan Go Publik di Indonesia, Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Indonesia, 1-11.

Rayburn, J. (1986). The Association of Operating Cash Flow and Accrual with Security Returns, Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement), 112-133

Sugiri, S. (2003), Kemampuan Laba Rincian untuk Memprediksi Arus Kas, Desertasi, Tidak Dipublikasikan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.

Supriyadi (1999), The Perdictive Ability of Earnings Versus Cash Flow Data to Predict Future Cash Flows: A Firm Specific Analysis, Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 1(2), 113-132.

Sunariyah (1996), Ketepatan Ramalan Laba di Prospektus Pada Awal Penawaraan Umum di Pasar Modal Indonesia, Tesis S2, Tidak Dipublikasikan, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.

Utami, C. D. (1999), Muatan Informasi Arus Kas dari Aktivitas Operasi, Investasi, dan Pendanaan, Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi, 1, 15-27.

Sri, W. (2000), Pengaruh Klasifikasi Komponen Laba terhadap Kemampuan Prediksi Laba, Tesis S2, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.


Full Text: PDF

The Journal is published by The Institute of Research & Community Outreach - Petra Christian University. It available online supported by Directorate General of Higher Education - Ministry of National Education - Republic of Indonesia.

©All right reserved 2016.Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan, ISSN: 1411-0288, e-ISSN: 2338-8137

click tracking
View My Stats




Copyright © Research Center Web-Dev Team