Kinerja Keuangan Berbasis Penciptaan Nilai, Faktor Makroekonomi dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Return Saham Sektor Pertanian

Arif Kurniadi, Noer Azam Achsani, Hendro Sasongko




Abstract


Stock return is the main indicator of performance for investors in assessing the effectiveness of the invested capital. The volatility of stock price index of the agricultural sector during 2005 - 2011 has resulted in an annualized return was the second-lowest sector after mining sector. The use of value creation-based performance analysis (EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin) can help companies create corporate value highly associated with stock returns. In addition, external factors may also affect stock returns. The purposes of this study are: (1) to analyze the financial performance of companies in the agricultural sector by using EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin, (2) to analyze the influence of EVA, MVA, Q-Tobin and macroeconomic factors (inflation and exchange rates) on stock returns agricultural sector, and (3) to develop managerial implications of the results of analyzes performed. Data was collected from eight companies agricultural sector, which listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange before 2005. Descriptive analysis is used to analyze EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin for each company and data panel is used to find out influence of EVA, MVA, Q-Tobin, and macroeconomic factors on stock returns. The study showed that most companies gained a negative EVA. Tthe MVA analysis showed that most companies gained more positive MVA. The Q-Tobin result shows that most companies gained value q<1. Based on REM analysis, only found MVARET and Q-TobinRET have significant effect on stock returns. EVARET, inflation, an exchange rate, and dummy crisis have insignificant effect on stock returns.


Keywords


Stock return, agricultural sector, value creation-based performance analysis

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